Good morning [%first_name |Dear Reader%],

Three years ago, when the outbreak of the Covid pandemic had sent a wave of panic rippling across the world, we had a blossoming of unsubstantiated theories—often relayed to us by family members who perhaps spent a little too much time on WhatsApp groups. 

One of them was that the virus responsible was created in a lab in China, and leaked out. 

Now, the US’ Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) says there might be some truth to this theory.

We won’t get too deep into this particular case in this edition of Inciting Incident. What we’ll look at, instead, is conspiracy theories. 

Because let’s face it, the China lab leak theory was judged a conspiracy theory by the mainstream media for three years. And it was judged so because of the lack of credible evidence to substantiate it at that point. The fact that it is gathering credibility now doesn’t take away from the fact that three years ago, it didn’t have much going for it. 

And yet, it spread. As did many other theories that, unlike the China lab leak, remain unsubstantiated hypotheses with little or no evidence backing them. 

Conspiracy theories aren’t a pandemic era creation, though. They’ve been around forever. Three centuries ago, the author Jonathan Swift wrote:

“…falsehood flies, and the truth comes limping after it; so that when men come to be undeceived, it is too late; the jest is over, and the tale has had its effect.”

Last week, the first anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine led to a spike in false claims about the war, with some such posts on social media gaining millions of engagements. Last month, thousands protested against a low-traffic neighbourhood in Oxford, UK, because of a conspiracy narrative. 

Why? 

What makes people believe stories that don’t have enough evidence and choose to then spread them? 

Let’s dive in.

Mistrust is at the heart of all conspiracy theories

Good stories play between the lands of belief and disbelief. Magic worlds and characters, wonderlands, where seasons last for years… suspending your disbelief for such obviously fictional things, is fun. But that’s fiction and fantasy. In the real world, we understand that belief in something doesn’t make it true. 

Except, psychology, it has been argued, is the primary reason why some people believe in conspiracies, while others chose to be sceptical.

New Scientist, a popular weekly science and technology publication, broke this down last year in an insightful piece.