After global models, lockdowns, India finally has local Covid models

Early mathematical models for Covid-19 came with an expiry date. Now, post-lockdown preparation is best left to localised models that account for cities’ unique characteristics

Mathematical models are useful. They help in planning for medical facilities and, in the case of Covid-19, guidance for lockdown implementation

A number of early models predicted case numbers much worse than what we see today, but they were useful predicting the disease wasn’t going away anytime soon

Now, the need is for localised models, which can give specific recommendations attuned to specific cities

A number of models are in the works, but without access to data and an active collaboration with government task forces, their utility is limited

On 4 June, the Indian Institute of Science (IISc) and the Tata Institute of Fundamental Research (TIFR) released a paper detailing a mathematical model that suggested strategies to ease lockdown restrictions in Mumbai.

Their suggestions, based on the model, were two-fold.

Mumbai could begin a phased reopening of workplaces, with 20-30% attendance, without overwhelming the city’s medical capacity.
The city’s local trains—used by 7.5 million people every day pre-Covid—could resume with 20% capacity, provided people maintained social distancing and wore masks.

On 15 June, Mumbai resumed its train services after almost three months, limiting their use to essential service workers.

AUTHOR

Shreedhar Manek

Based in Bangalore, Shreedhar is a Staff Writer for The Ken. He writes on technology, education, human resources and urban mobility. He has a BTech in Computer Science and an MS in Urban Sociology from IIIT Hyderabad.

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