When real-time economics and business shifts shake the ground, forecasts do little to keep things standing. Even if the forecaster is a blue-blooded consulting firm such as McKinsey & Company. Out with its 2030 projection for the Indian pharmaceutical industry in late June, McKinsey says the industry could grow to $120-130 billion by 2030. Once again, an aspirational, feel-good number is hurled into the public sphere. Time, therefore, to ask how McKinsey’s 2020 forecast has held up.

In 2009, McKinsey’s 10-year forecast said Indian pharma would grow to $55 billion by 2020.