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Crypto is cursed for two seconds in India

The Nutgraf is a 10-min newsletter sent at 10 AM IST every Saturday. It connects the dots and synthesizes one big event in business, technology and finance that happened over the week in India. In a way you’ll never forget.

This is a paid newsletter that’s available exclusively to The Ken’s premium subscribers.

Just 10 mins long Synthesis not analysis Sometimes memes

16 Apr, 2022

Can’t recruit. Can’t advertise. Can’t sell. Can’t buy

Read this edition online
A paid 🔒 weekly emailer that explains fundamental shifts in business, technology and finance that happened over the last seven days in India. In a way you’ll never forget. Someone sent you this? Sign up here
Good Morning Dear Reader,
 

Elon here. I’m pleased to announce that I’ve acquired The Nutgraf, and will be publishing my thoughts here. 

 

No, I’m kidding. It’s still me. 

 

I’m writing this from a hotel room because I’m on holiday today. Not just because it’s Good Friday, but also because it’s my birthday. So if you find today’s edition to be shorter than usual, it’s not because a billionaire bought this newsletter and made it into his personal microblogging outlet. This is not to suggest that overtures to acquire this newsletter are unwelcome. If you are a billionaire and reading this, I’m open to offers. Email me. I want to stay in a bigger hotel room next year. 

 

Anyway, while the world was losing their mind about whether or not Elon Musk would buy Twitter, most people missed the fact that as of this week, it got much, much harder to buy crypto in India. 

 

Here’s my colleague, Jaspreet, who wrote about it in his amazing crypto newsletter Tokenised (you should subscribe!) earlier this week. 

Late last week, global crypto exchange Coinbase threw a party-like event at a plush hotel ballroom in Bengaluru. The mood was strikingly celebratory as the dearly beloved and faithful gathered at what seemed to me like a cross between a north-Indian wedding (re:loud) and a cult meeting.
 
The exchange’s senior executives, including chief executive Brian Armstrong, took the stage and talked a big game about their commitment to India and their desire to operate in the country. Because that was basically what the event was about—Coinbase’s launch in India.
 
And at the centre of it all was Coinbase’s new feature: a UPI payment option for buying crypto.
Coinbase sneezed and everyone caught a cold, Tokenised, The Ken
Essentially, Coinbase thought that it had come up with something revolutionary which would significantly reduce the friction needed to buy crypto. 
 

Except, the National Payments Corporation of India (NPCI), the regulatory body which regulates and runs UPI, wasn’t exactly in on the plan. So it made its displeasure public by releasing a press release, which was exactly one sentence long.

 

Coinbase realised that it had said something it shouldn’t have and quickly disabled UPI as a payment method on its app and website. 

 

But it was too late. 

 

And not just for Coinbase, but for everybody. 


Here’s Jaspreet again.
Following Coinbase’s run-in with the NPCI on 7 April, Mobikwik—a popular payment wallet among crypto exchanges—also stopped supporting crypto exchanges. The firm’s chief executive Bipin Preet Singh confirmed the development, according to a report by The Economic Times.
 
It seems like Coinbase’s chest-thumping may have not just muddied the waters for itself, but for other smaller exchanges too. According to three crypto exchange founders I spoke to, many banking partners have already severed—or are taking steps to sever—UPI functionalities that were previously being offered to crypto exchanges.
 
Just yesterday, news outlets reported that CoinSwitch Kuber, a crypto exchange aggregator that has received investment from Coinbase, had temporarily disabled all options to deposit rupees on its platform, including bank transfers.
 
It looks to me like Coinbase was laughing, then it sneezed, and now every business in India’s crypto landscape has a cold.
Coinbase sneezed and everyone caught a cold, Tokenised, The Ken
Since then, things have gotten worse. WazirX, another crypto exchange had also disabled all payment methods except netbanking, and even that was restricted to a few banks, with the major ones excluded. CoinDCX, as per some reports, was allowing bank transfers, but had a minimum limit of Rs 3,000 (~US$40). Also, Kotak, which was the only bank that had agreed to process payments for Coinswitch Kuber, suspended its services. 
 

Suddenly, almost overnight, crypto had been cursed. 

 

The crazy part is that it’s not like Coinbase did something others hadn’t done. Earlier this week, The Hindu reported that crypto exchanges had been offering UPI as a payment option since March, and how they’d been constantly changing their IDs because their IDs would keep getting blocked. 

 

This just reminds me of a popular theatre superstition called the Macbeth curse, which claims that speaking the name Macbeth inside a theatre will invite disaster. This is why performers refuse to call the play by its name, and usually just refer to it as ‘the scottish play’, or something vague like that. The idea is that if you say the word Macbeth, bad things will happen.

 

Coinbase’s problem wasn’t that it did something others hadn’t done. 

 

The problem was that Coinbase said the words out loud. 

 

And the curse fell. 

If you break it down to the basics, crypto is essentially a cult. The ones who believe in it think that it’s transformational and don’t look at it with deep suspicion. This does not mean that crypto will end badly. Most forms of disruptive technology usually begin as a cult—the characteristics of those who truly worship a decentralised future isn’t too different from, say, Apple fans in the 1980s or Tesla fans from just a decade ago. All organised religions are just cults that have succeeded. 
 

All throughout history, the way cults proliferate and broaden their power and influence is by recruiting new members. It usually begins with a revolutionary idea, which is marketed and sold to non-believers, and over time, some of them start to believe. The more members you get, the bigger your marketing team becomes and the flywheel is set into motion. And then, it’s just a matter of time before your members are exchanging things of value using dog currency. 

 

Crypto is almost exactly like any of the millions of cults that have preceded it. I say almost, because its core, revolutionary idea isn’t tangible. At least, not yet. Unlike an Apple computer or a Tesla Roadster, it’s hard to explain why exactly a decentralised future is intrinsically better than the status quo. Sure, there are many who believe this, but I’m not sure if there are enough people who believe in it and the jury is out on what these people can create to recruit more believers.
 

Instead crypto primarily recruits new members and broadens its influence by doing something that’s much more tangible, i.e.: join us and make more money. Of course, the stuff that’s created and seen as valuable needs more people to believe that it’s valuable. Things go up in value when the number of people who want to buy something (or pay a higher price) exceeds the number of those who want to sell it. 

 

Right now, if crypto has to grow, it needs more buyers. And its pitch to potential members is the same. Make more money.

 

Except in India, crypto is having trouble recruiting more members. 

 

And the pressure is coming all the way from the top.

Crypto exchanges WazirX and Bitbns have decided to abstain from putting out advertisements, amid discussions of a possible regulatory clampdown of the cryptocurrency sector.
 
…
 
Crypto exchanges had flooded TV screens with advertisements during recent sports events like the ICC T20 World Cup and Indian Premier League. People in the know said most of these entities could now tone down their claims, amid increasing scrutiny of their advertisements, some of which are alleged to be puffery and misleading. Critics say these ads could lure Indians into investing, without being aware of the risks, in an asset class notorious for wild price swings.
 
Crypto advertisement had also emerged as an area of concern at several high-level meetings conducted this month within the government and with industry stakeholders. 
 
On Saturday, a meeting chaired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi decided that attempts to mislead the youth through over promising and non-transparent advertising be stopped.
WazirX, Bitbns hit pause on crypto ads, The Economic Times
All of this has been having an effect. Visitors and trades at crypto exchanges in India are down by as much as 90% from its peak. If you can’t advertise to get new members, then where are the new members going to come from? 
 

And all of this was before the payments freeze which hit crypto companies last week. 

 

Add to this the war in Ukraine and rising petroleum prices, which have spooked investors all over and will, in all likelihood, lead to a drying up of funding for crypto companies. For many venture capital (VCs) firms, crypto is a moonshot bet, and few will invest in moonshots when the situation at home is dire. 

 

So, yeah, for all these reasons, crypto is cursed in India. 

 

But for how long? 

 

Well, we don’t know. But I have an answer. 

However, for that, I’ll have to share a story about Swiss watches. It’s a story I heard from a couple of my friends (who collect and know more about watches than I do) a few weeks back. 

 

If you’ve ever been to a train station in Switzerland, you’ll see something special about all the clocks in the place. The clocks themselves are quite minimal and beautiful, and they’re all over Switzerland.

 

The strange part is what happens when the second hand of the clock hits zero. Instead of continuing on, it does something really weird. It just stops for a couple of seconds.

All the way from the 1940s till today, this is something that all Swiss clocks in railway stations do. 
 

But why?

In the 1940s Switzerland wanted the clocks in each of their train stations to be synchronized. If you are a train historian then you know the pivotal role that the railroad industry had in precision timepieces. Trains not only needed to be on time, but train stations each needed to know the same time. During the era of mechanical timekeeping, this was a very manual process that required regular synchronization.
 
In 1944 a Swiss engineer named Hans Hilfiker designed a new system that would synchronize clocks at each station using signals that traveled via telephone cables. The system would re-sync the clock at several thousand stations every single minute. 
 
We believe the two second pause allows for each clock to be synchronized and the delay gives the clock the ability to neutralize any perceived error. Thus, the iconic two second pause each minute as seen on Swiss Railways clocks was born. 
Mondaine Stop2Go Swiss Railways Watch With 2 Second Delay
When I think about what’s going on with crypto in India, I think about how Swiss watches pause, effectively stopping time to let everyone get synchronised. Nearly everyone involved in crypto is stuck in this pause right now, waiting for everyone else to catch up. Banks. Regulators. Exchanges. Investors. Companies. Employers. Founders. All stuck in that crucial two second pause, waiting for the signal to come to tell everyone what the right time is. 
 

It’s going to feel a lot longer than two seconds, though. 

 

But until then, crypto is cursed.

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